Economic and environmental transportation effects of large-scale ethanol production and distribution in the United States.

The combination of current and planned 2007 U.S. ethanol production capacity is 50 billion L/yr, one-third of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) target of 136 billion L of biofuels by 2022. In this study, we evaluate transportation impacts and infrastructure requirements for the use of E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) in light-duty vehicles using a combination of corn and cellulosic ethanol. Ethanol distribution is modeled using a linear optimization model. Estimated average delivered ethanol costs, in 2005 dollars, range from $0.29 to $0.62 per liter ($1.3-2.8 per gallon), depending on transportation distance and mode. Emissions from ethanol transport estimated in this work are up to 2 times those in previous ethanol LCA studies and thus lead to larger total life cycle effects. Long-distance transport of ethanol to the end user can negate ethanol's potential economic and environmental benefits relative to gasoline. To reduce costs, we recommend regional concentration of E85 blends for future ethanol production and use.